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Innovation and external development are the only way for China's paper industry in the "post crisis" era

1 zigzag forward: the reform and development of China's paper industry before the financial crisis

from the perspective of reform, breaking the monopoly of state-owned enterprises in the planned economy and introducing private capital are the main lines of reform in China's competitive industries. The same is true of the development of paper industry

since the late 1970s, reform and opening up have begun. The paper industry, which was hit hard by the cultural revolution, ushered in a golden period of development with the re establishment of the paper industry bureau of the Ministry of light industry. In the following period of time, the contract system sang loudly in China. Farmers contract land, workers contract enterprises, and the paper industry has also ushered in the upsurge of contracting. Some capable and enterprising paper makers have contracted some paper enterprises in trouble. And after that, there have been two different ways of development. Relying on the advantages of capital, raw materials, human resources, especially policies, large state-owned enterprises have made rapid progress all the way, relying on new equipment and mergers of small enterprises to continuously expand their strength. At the same time, some small private enterprises are also struggling to develop in the cracks of large state-owned enterprises

in the early 1990s, with the end of the dual track system, paper-making enterprises completely moved towards the market. At the same time, some domestic paper varieties are in serious shortage of supply, and the state has increased the import of paper products. However, due to the lack of regulation experience, the scale has not been well controlled, and the dumping of foreign enterprises, the domestic paper enterprises are suddenly exposed to the competition in the international market. A large number of large-scale state-owned paper-making enterprises, which were brilliant in the era of planned economy, were short of international competitiveness and weak awareness of market competition, coupled with factors such as triangular debt, and soon collapsed

after successfully resisting the Asian financial crisis in 1998, China's economy ushered in a golden period of development, and its GDP maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 10%, which also brought strong impetus to the demand for paper. According to statistics, from 2000 to 2007, the output of paper and paperboard in China increased by 13.39% and the consumption increased by 10.72% annually. Although the period has experienced cyclical adjustments brought by foreign dumping in 2001 and 2002 and short-term economic correction, with the introduction of several national anti-dumping measures and the re recovery of the economy, China's paper industry has always maintained high-speed growth

from the perspective of development, China's paper industry has not only achieved a leap forward development, from an importing country to an exporting country, but also changed its scale from decentralized to centralized, forming a group of market-oriented industry leaders. However, in the 30-year development of the paper industry, although paper enterprises have generally experienced a complete development cycle from trough to overheating, and from high temperature to cold winter, both traditional state-owned enterprises and emerging private enterprises still lack the status of international competition and the ability of winter reorganization

it can be started when the oil to emerge in 2005 is tightened without bubbles. With the expansion of the global paper industry, especially the rapid development of China, Southeast Asia and Latin American countries and regions, the prices of energy and raw materials related to papermaking have also accelerated. Major domestic paper-making enterprises have raised funds through the capital market. Some paper-making enterprises have obtained strong financial support through listing, and then purchased new equipment, put into production new projects, and built raw material forests. But all this is based on overly optimistic market analysis, which is in a situation of deviation between value and price. Driven by the Olympic effect, the industrial foam is blowing bigger and bigger

however, when the grand blueprint of the paper industry was drawn to a critical moment, the global financial crisis suddenly broke out in the third quarter of 2008

2 the height is extremely cold: the global financial crisis is a good opportunity for China's paper industry to integrate and optimize enterprises.

when it comes to the current situation of China's paper industry, we should first analyze it from China's current economic situation. From the second half of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, stimulated by the expectation of RMB appreciation and high domestic interest rates, international capital continued to flow into China through various channels to seek benefits and grab resources. Foreign hot money once pushed the prices of China's stock market and real estate market to an irrational high. At the same time, it also drove the prices of energy and raw materials soaring, resulting in serious inflation and liquidity flooding. The huge amount of foreign exchange reserves held by China has also seriously shrunk in the process of RMB appreciation. In order to maintain social stability, the government has heavily subsidized the prices of basic energy and food such as oil and grain, and the government finance has borne a heavy burden. For a time, China's economy has been faced with unprecedented challenges

since September, 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has triggered a global financial crisis, which has severely damaged the global economy, and the world economic pattern has undergone a dramatic change. The global encirclement and suppression of China has suddenly turned into a complete collapse of the global economy. The international hot money was too busy to take care of itself and withdrew from the Chinese market one after another. Governments of various countries also turned to China for help. With the gradual intensification of the financial crisis, the inflation and other problems faced by China's economy have been solved, and a great difficulty in the integration of the global economy has been overcome

after China's overall economy passed the customs safely, all industries are facing the most severe test since the reform and opening up, especially the paper industry. In the past, China's paper industry has been in a growth period. A prominent feature is that the production of domestic paper products is lower than the consumption, and the annual foreign trade deficit. However, with the rapid development in recent years, this situation changed in 2007, when China's paper and paperboard output reached 73.5 million tons, exceeding consumption for the first time (72.9 million tons); At the same time, paper exports 4.76 million tons and imports 4.02 million tons, also showing a trade surplus for the first time. In 2008, China's paper production exceeded 80million tons (according to the National Bureau of Statistics), surpassing the United States to become the world's first paper producer

however, China's paper industry, which has reached its peak, is facing a crisis of overcapacity. Especially after June 2008, affected by the global financial crisis and other factors, domestic paper enterprises have also generally seen sharp sales reductions and inventory backlogs. With a number of new capacity reaching production in 2009-2011, it can be expected that the oversupply of China's paper industry will continue, and the degree may intensify. Facing the severe situation, China's paper industry has personally experienced the cold at the peak

in the period of economic overheating, China's economic contradictions are covered up, and it is difficult to make appropriate adjustments to the economic structure, development mode and development speed. Taking papermaking enterprises as an example, in the first half of 2008, enterprises were profitable regardless of size, and industrial integration and elimination of backward production capacity can only be promoted by simple administrative means, with a slow pace. Moreover, the paper industry is a distorted industry under the financial foam. Driven by speculative capital, the prices of raw material pulp and paper products have reached unprecedented highs. In this way, on the one hand, the overall strength of the industry is not significantly improved, and too many enterprises have led to disorder and malicious competition in the market; On the other hand, it is difficult for large enterprises to achieve faster development in the boom period

although the state has promulgated a strict industry access and elimination system and increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements, and constantly promoted industrial integration through administrative means, the effect is not obvious. Caozhenlei, Secretary General of the China papermaking association, once said that the "light industry adjustment and revitalization plan" proposed that it would be difficult to implement an additional 2million tons on the basis of eliminating 6.5 million tons of backward production capacity. Administrative means alone are not enough. Market means are also needed. An important factor to give play to market means is the adjustment of the economic environment, and the global financial crisis is an opportunity. The financial crisis has led to a sharp decline in the prices of paper products and pulp, increased financing difficulties for paper-making enterprises, and the scope of losses continues to expand. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises without scale strength are unsustainable, and will automatically withdraw from the market, so that the industry can be upgraded and optimized to a larger scale. Therefore, the financial crisis will be a great blessing for the reform and development of China's paper industry

at the same time, according to the design of the State Council's ten major industrial revitalization plan, China's economic structure will make a larger strategic adjustment: first, regional structural adjustment, the manufacturing industry will shift from the eastern coast to the western inland; Second, the internal and external structural adjustment, demand pull from export-oriented demand to stimulate domestic demand; Third, the control system software operation platform is also very formal industrial structure adjustment, and the independent innovation and overall upgrading of enterprises will be greatly accelerated; Fourth, the adjustment of organizational structure promotes the differentiation of enterprises in the trough period. Capable enterprises become stronger and bigger through mergers and acquisitions. Unable enterprises withdraw from the market, and the industrial concentration gradually increases

historically, each industrial trough will lead to the reshuffle of the adjustment of the beam speed when the industry can complete the sample clamping, and powerful enterprises will stand out in the trough integration and become industrial leaders. Now, whether in terms of national macro-control or the survival of the fittest in the market, the financial crisis has provided opportunities for industrial integration and enterprise optimization in the paper industry. For strong Chinese paper enterprises, they should improve their internal management, broaden various financing channels, reasonably improve their development layout, boldly implement expansionary strategies including restructuring, mergers and even overseas bottom hunting, and reshape their industry leaders

3 fly higher: innovation and external development are the only way for China's paper industry in the post crisis era

how long the financial crisis will last and whether China's paper industry has completely come out of the trough are issues of common concern in the current industry

paper products are also different under the influence of economic situation according to different paper types. Among them, packaging paper is the most seriously affected, followed by paper, cultural paper, etc. But at the same time, due to the bulk commodity nature of pulp and the existence of forward market, the price of pulp and paper products is closely related to financial credit. With the emergence of a series of stimulus policies in China, China has stepped out of recession before other countries in the world, and the paper industry has also achieved unexpected great development in 2009. However, in view of the downturn of the global economic situation and the recurrence of the financial industry, the paper industry should make sustained preparations for the winter war for 2-3 years

views on the future development path of China's paper industry, including energy conservation and emission reduction, integration of Forest Pulp and paper, and elimination of backward production capacity, have been put forward and confirmed more than once in the industry. These views have also been clearly published in the paper industry development policy. Concepts such as low-carbon economy have also been widely mentioned recently. The main work in the future is to implement and implement. Here, the author only puts forward some views from the overall macroeconomic situation and some new changes in the industry recently

3.1 we should always grasp the domestic and international economic situation and national macro policies

from the recent global economic data, major countries in the world are still in the path of economic recovery, especially Europe. However, the data from the United States are mixed. On the one hand, GDP, industrial added value, manufacturing capacity utilization and other indicators have improved; On the other hand, the unemployment rate and consumer confidence index continue to deteriorate, especially the traditional western two festivals did not drive consumption to grow as expected, which also shows people's pessimism about the future. According to the analysis of economists, the U.S. economy will recover at least until 2015

according to China's data, exports were tight in 2009